Taking a Deeper Look into the Moving Average For Splunk Inc (SPLK)

Splunk Inc (SPLK) are being closely watched by investors as the firm’s Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) has dipped below the Fractional Adaptive Moving Average (FAMA), indicating that a potential bearish move might be forthcoming.  The MESA Adaptive Moving Average, which was developed by John Ehlers, is a technical trend-following indicator which adapts to price movement “based on the rate change of phase as measured by the Hilbert Transform Discriminator”. This method of adaptation features a fast and a slow moving average so that the composite moving average swiftly responds to price changes and holds the average value until the next bar’s close. The author states that because the average’s fallback is slow, trading systems can be created with almost whipsaw-free trades.

Active investors are typically interested in the factors that drive stock price movements. Buying an individual stock means that you own a piece of the company. The hope is that the company does very well and becomes highly profitable. A profitable company may decide to do various things with the profits. They may reinvest profits back into the business, or they may choose to pay shareholders dividends from those earnings. Sometimes stocks may eventually become undervalued or overvalued. Spotting these trends may lead to further examination or the underlying fundamentals of the company. A company that continues to disappoint on the earnings front may have some issues that need to be addressed. It is highly important to make sure all the research is done on a stock, especially if the investor is heavily weighted on the name. Sometimes earnings reports may be good, but the stock price does not reflect that. Having a good understanding of the entire picture may help investors better travel the winding stock market road.

Traders may be also be focusing in on the ATR or Average True Range indicator when performing stock analysis. At the time of writing, Splunk Inc (SPLK) has a 14-day ATR of 4.26. The average true range indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder in order to measure volatility. The ATR may assist traders with figuring out the strength of a breakout or reversal in price. It is important to note that the ATR was not designed to determine price direction or to predict future prices.

Currently, the 14-day ADX for Splunk Inc (SPLK) is sitting at 29.49. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would support a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would identify a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would lead to an extremely strong trend. ADX is used to gauge trend strength but not trend direction. Traders often add the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of a trend.

Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 37.09, the 7-day stands at 19.75, and the 3-day is sitting at 3.96. Many investors look to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of a particular stock to help identify overbought/oversold conditions. The RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s. Wilder laid out the foundation for future technical analysts to further investigate the RSI and its relationship to underlying price movements. Since its inception, RSI has remained very popular with traders and investors. Other technical analysts have built upon the work of Wilder. The 14-day RSI is still a widely popular choice among technical stock analysts.

Investors may be watching other technical indicators such as the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that helps measure oversold and overbought levels. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock in relation to the highs and lows over a certain time period. A common look back period is 14 days. Splunk Inc (SPLK)’s Williams %R presently stands at -85.42. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would indicate an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would indicate an oversold situation.

Taking a closer look from a technical standpoint, Splunk Inc (SPLK) presently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -350.16. Typically, the CCI oscillates above and below a zero line. Normal oscillations tend to stay in the range of -100 to +100. A CCI reading of +100 may represent overbought conditions, while readings near -100 may indicate oversold territory. Although the CCI indicator was developed for commodities, it has become a popular tool for equity evaluation as well.

As we sail into the second half of the calendar year, investors may be looking to see what has gone right and what has gone wrong so far this year. Making necessary changes to some holdings may help position investors for the next couple of quarters. Being able to cut the riskier losers and take some profits from winners may help solidify the stock portfolio. As we run through the next round of company earnings reports, investors will be keeping a close eye on the data that is reported. Investors may be looking to buy companies that continue to post beats on the earnings front, and cut ties with ones that are not hitting their marks.    

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